POLITCS BY THE METRICS

      Much of public policy is driven by what cynics call "lies, damn lies and statistics."  Now the media has joined the numbers game via their so-called "fact checkers."  In each case, the level of accuracy of so-called "data" driven fact claims warrant deep skepticism.  

     Most of us are numbers challenged - it's easy to zone out when the "number crunchers" start talking.  But holding the number crunchers accountable is important. 

     As an educator/wonk I'm familiar with the "dubious" claims of the zealots of NCLB and the Race to the Top in Oregon.  The irony is evident in today's Oregonian that cites metrics we are doing better in closing the education "achievement gap" by a few percentage points.  Oh joy.  Of course this implies one trusts the data has not been "cooked" by teaching to the test or by less savory methods. 

    The metric which leaps out is that 23% of Oregon high school kids drop out.  So how can we claim to have succeeded in closing the "achievement gap" with such "outcomes based" results - eh?  We've been working on this in Oregon since '91 with the Education Act for the 21st Century (the Katz Plan) - a decade before NCLB came online.  It makes me wonder as in Vietnam why don't we just "declare victory" and leave the schools to those on the front lines? 

     Politics by the "numbers" didn't begin with education.  The old "body count" game in Vietnam was used to claim we were winning "hearts and minds."  Boy that really worked out well didn't it?  And when one looks at what's happening in Iraq with the withdrawal of allied troops - one must wonder was the effort worth the trouble?  And then there is Afghanistan.  As Yogi would say "it's deja vu all over again." 

     Just for the record I've always been a skeptic when our leaders "declare wars on" commies, poverty, drugs or terrorism. 

     Friday I spent the day in meetings on homelessness aka "the war to end homelessness."  A national guru from the east coast led a day long discussion about ending homelessness.  His message boiled down to one line - quit talking about the touchy feely humanitarian reasons for ending homelessness, talk about the bottom line - focus on the "costs" of homelessness to taxpayers, local government and business!

     We must focus on "messaging" that is "data" driven!  Sound familiar? 

Business Strategies to Ending Homelessness

     During my lunch break I had time to re-read the 2012 staff report on ending homelessness in Washington County.  Using simple math skills the metric I came up with was that in 3 years of a 10 year plan to end homelessness - in the teeth of the worst economy since the Great Depression - we've moved 10% of homeless persons in Washington County off the streets, out of shelters into permanent supportive housing.  That's the "good news." 

     Projecting over the remaining 6 years of our 10 year plan - by 2018 at this pace we will have "closed the gap" by housing 30% of the homeless.  Huh?  So much for ending homelessness in Washington County, Oregon!  So much for the "metrics" or the politics of being "data driven."  The problem as our guru said is generating "political will."  We've got the data. what we don't have is sufficient funding to build enough affordable housing to meet demand.

     This leaves service providers, advocates and the faith community in a very unpleasant "Catch 22" dilemma with shrinking public and private resources. 

     I asked our invited "guru" how do we get from 10% to 100%?  He was a bit flummoxed given my metric because his staff's summary of "outcomes" based indicators from our plan was upbeat.  Like so many "outsider" gurus his review failed to drill down on the numbers.  So the admonition to use "cost effective" measures and "cost/benefit" analysis turned out "dare I say it" not to be very "fact based."  Hum, there a pattern here.   

     Again, being a Vietnam era protestor, my memory of the body counts haunts me and returns me to cynicism - "lies, damn lies and statistics." 

     As an affordable housing advocate I know the numbers on homelessness and poverty are "squishy." But what is not in doubt are the homeless who come to our local county shelters, to our "severe weather network" church shelters, to Family Bridge churches, kids in our schools identified as homeless or those who come to Homeless Connect once a year to get services.  Those faces and numbers are real.  

     So the question becomes a moral not a factoid based one - "if not us, who?" 

     I understand the clarion call to be data driven, to use cost/benefit analysis etc.  But the metrics I know in Washington County, Oregon "undercount" the real problem now made worse by a bad economy, foreclosures, increased family homelessness and the impending wave of returning vets from Iraq and Afghanistan who will end up in the streets like their Vietnam vet predecessors.  So I want to scream "get over it" bean counters!  

     Governor George Romney as a presidential candidate in '68 said "I was brainwashed" during his trip to Vietnam.  Let's avoid that trap. 

     Each faith has a "Golden Rule" - to treat others as you want to be treated. The pain on the streets is documented.  What has not been evident is the political will of community leaders who should step up and offer a "helping hand" - paying it forward or paying their fair share of taxes!  Forgive me if I shout "cut the bull" and fork over the money to reach "capacity" - i.e. building enough affordable housing to end homelessness. 

     If we don't cut to the chase, the 2018 10 Year Plan will report that homelessness still exists in Oregon's richest county and the hub of Oregon's economy where the current unemployment rate only 7.5%.  Like our guru said - it's about generating "political will."  If good messaging and data doesn't sell then maybe Washington County residents who are commuting to OWS-PDX will set up some tents here!  My oh my... 

     Perhaps we need to "swoosh in" by defaulting to a slightly eschatological version of our local and only Fortune 500 company's motto, damn it "just do it." 

     Ending chronic homelessness must not obscure the fact that solving this is not the end game.  If we are able to house the 1400 homeless in Washington County by 2018, we still have 5000 people from the ranks of the "working poor" earning 50% or less of median family income who are on the Housing Authority's "waiting list." These are this generations "invisible poor" Michael Harrington chronicled in the 1960s in the JFK era! 

     Once you turn over one rock, you find another one that you weren't seeing in a county where 40,000 residents are one job loss away or major medical crisis away from being in the streets! 

THE STATE OF THE UNION

     Tuesday night, President Obama delivered his State of the Union Address and laid out his plan for an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, new skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values.

     Throughout the speech, the President discussed ideas for building an America that lasts. He called it a blueprint for the future and talked about ways to make his vision reality.

     In case you missed it, be sure to check out the video of the enhanced State of the Union:

WhiteHouse.gov/SOTU

    

Post-Mortem on S of the U speech: 

     As campaign 2012 is evolving two narratives are emerging which might make this election a seminal or "critical" election: 

     On the GOP side whether the nominee of the party is Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich the Republican narrative will be focused on lowering the footprint of the federal government by continuing the Bush II policy of across the board tax cuts and cutting government spending at all levels - federal, state and local.

     The latter point is important because federal pass through dollars buttress state and local spending. 

     With the end of federal stimulus spending the buck passes to state and local government to fill the gaps in the social safety net, school funding and a host of other programs.  Since states and local governments have seen revenue drop due to a bad economy - they have made significant cuts in programs and employees. 

     So under the GOP narrative - one can expect a "draining of the swamp" in the public sector across the board.  Grover Norquist's goal of shrinking government to a size that it can be drowned in a bathtub will have been achieved.  If the private sector, the faith community and/or local philanthropy doesn't step up - the era of a "social contract" will die.    

     President Obama made it clear in his State of the Union address that he is anxious to take on the GOP in this debate over the role of government in American society.  Obama, like Democratic Presidents before him and even Republicans like Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford, views the federal government as a key player in getting our economy up and running. 

     Instead of "trickle down" economics Obama is offering what some term the "trickle up" effect or an investment strategy. 

     Obama wants a tax system that expects the rich (millionaires and billionaires) to pay their fair share.  Obama's pledge to up the ante on the rich to a minimum 30% tax rate takes the debate beyond removing the Bush tax cuts for the rich.  He's saying Mitt Romney et al using loopholes to "game" the system at a 15% rate is unfair and must end!   

     Playing the "class envy" card Obama is throwing the gauntlet down embracing Occupy Wall Street talking points about "economic inequality." Everyone must pay their fair share in taxes and for the rich this means raising the bar of their obligations to the polity.  If the middle class pay @ a 28% rate then the rich should pay at least 30%. 

     Since the non-rich outnumber the rich, Obama should win this debate at the polls in November.  However, November is a galaxy far far away.  Who knows - "only the Shadow knows" and he's not talking!  

     PS:  Check this link out from my CC - 

Reality check: Almost all Americans pay too little tax

 

THE FIRST LADY SPEAKS!

     OK, now that I have your attention - the "First Lady"I'm talking about is Oregon's not Michelle Obama! 

     At the 2012 Food Security Summit at OSU last week, Oregon's First Lady Cylvia Hayes, the "companion" to Governor Kitzhaber, said she was "struck that [Oregon does not] have an overall strategy on poverty."  Hayes has spent most of her time on environmental issues not human services issues. 

     Those of us working in the vineyards of social services advocacy are not surprised.  What should be more surprising to Hayes is that her comments, in effect, are an unintended criticism of her husband's legacy since Kitzhaber has been a long time legislator and now a 3 term governor.  She might ask her husband - "what have you been doing" for three decades, dearest?  Why don't we have an "ending poverty" strategy already?  Humm, honey bun? 

     The answer is simple to state but heavy lifting to do: 

     Kitzhaber has never had interest as a legislator or governor in social services.  His passion has been on the environment and health care reform.  And his record of success evidences more "wins" on the former than the latter issue.  Aside from an "attention deficit problem" - the governor has never been able to summon the conviction to put his money where now his "companion's" mouth is.

     Where there is a will, there is a way but Kitzhaber has never had the will to go there! 

     The road to a "poverty strategy" is to earmark poverty in Oregon - which afflicts 1 in 5 Oregonians - with serious general fund money.  But this would require a major effort to overall Oregon's revenue system by repealing Measures 5, 46 & 50, the "Kickers" and moving to a more progressive income tax, bringing back the universal corporate tax and adding a sales and/or consumption tax. 

     Only two governors in Oregon, as I've noted in past blog posts, have been willing to give it the old college try - Tom McCall and Barbara Roberts.  Both failed.  But in the teeth of the Great Recession as the "First Companion" suggests - it's time to go back to the drawing boards.  But to do so will require more than symbolism and posturing from the residents of Mahonia Hall.

     The problem in Oregon and in the nation is that we've created a system of government and private non-profit entities to tackle the poverty.  Government entities depend for their funding on the problematic will of elected officials and the public.  Non-profit service providers depend on government, private philanthropy and the faith community.  Each competes with the other facing dwindling public and private support. 

     What Governor Kitzhaber is offering Oregonians through his partner is a low carb diet of increased public awareness (aka smoke and mirrors) and collaboration (aka moving the deck chairs of the Titanic):  

     Here's the rather thin gruel the "First Companion" offered via a press release with my bracketed comments: 

     CORVALLIS, Ore. -- At the 2012 Food Security Summit on Friday, First Lady of Oregon Cylvia Hayes unveiled the Oregon Prosperity Initiative, an effort to attack poverty and restore the middle class in Oregon.

     Oregon has one of the highest rates of childhood hunger and homelessness in the nation, and failing to address hunger costs Oregonians $2.1 billion annually, primarily from health care costs associated with poor nutrition and educational losses for kids who are too hungry to concentrate.

     RAD:  You know you are in trouble when the focus is on "costs" not "cures."  Yes, hunger, homelessness and poverty cost.  But the goal should not be to save money but to invest in people's futures which will cost up front money decades before any long term savings result.  Additionally, the pent up demand of those going without now will necessitate increased investments (i.e. more tax dollars, not fewer). 

     The Oregon Prosperity Initiative aims to ensure that people who are currently struggling to feed and shelter themselves and their families have access to critical resources. At the same time, the initiative will promote strategies to address the long-standing, systemic root causes of poverty.

     RAD:  The systemic causes of poverty are people without jobs (the unemployed), the underemployed and/or the working poor who don't make a family wage job.  How does the Governor and his lady propose to solve this intractable problem - with "strategic" planning? 

     “It is unacceptable that in our state, with its rich natural resources and human ingenuity, so many people are struggling to make ends meet,” said Hayes. “It is time to turn this around, maximize our potential, and make Oregon a more prosperous place to live and do business.”

     In the short term, the Oregon Prosperity Initiative will raise awareness about Oregon’s strong network of food banks and affordable housing facilities, and convene the Interagency Council on Hunger and Homelessness to address how to improve both the supply and distribution of food and housing to people in need.

     RAD:  Raising awareness is NOT the issue.  Most people are aware of the issue especially given the foreclosure crisis.  Convening the existing players is talking to the choir.  The only way to improve the conditions on the ground is to be committed to a funding strategy which fully funds, supports and expands such programs. 

     In the long term, Hayes will lead the Oregon Prosperity Initiative’s efforts to establish a more coordinated and integrated approach to poverty reduction in Oregon.

      This includes integrating poverty reduction strategies into long-term budgeting plans, engaging the business community in developing entrepreneurial approaches to improving opportunities for people to achieve prosperity, and embedding poverty reduction into the Governor’s education and health care transformation efforts.

     RAD:  What is a "poverty reduction" strategy?  Words mere words.  Engaging the business community is a joke.  We've been trying to engage the business community in Washington County for years without any success.  Getting people out of poverty doesn't fit their bottom line.  The only way they can help is by paying their fair share of local, county and state taxes! 

     Embedding poverty reduction into the Governor's education and health budget transformation process is a Potemkin Village!  It will be DOA once it goes to the legislature.  As long as the Governor is focused on "doing more with less" Oregon's poor will get the short end of the stick.  Pray tell what is an "entrepreneurial" approach?

     Additional thoughts for ending poverty in Oregon -

• If the feds won't do it, Oregon should create its own state funded WPA to put folks back to work in the timber industry and into other natural resources jobs; 
  

• Ramping up community colleges, workforce training and the private sector to subsidize the retraining of Oregonians for new jobs;

•  Using Oregon bonds to buy & invest in Oregon;

• Tying unemployment to on the job training in the public or private sector;

• End corporate welfare by only supporting tax credits that offer a clear and compelling public benefit;
  

• Require high schools to bring back 21st century versions of "shop" for men & women and to work with local businesses develop apprenticeships for students to transition from high school to a job;   

• Ending the higher ed silos between OSU, PSU and UO in engineering/science.  Create ONE program located in the Metro area and move all engineering studies - undegrad and grad to that campus (probably PSU); 
  

• Return UO to a focus on undergrad and graduate arts and science programs and OSU to a focus on undergrad and graduate natural resources programs;
  

• Require students to complete a full-time, one term, for credit internship outside their college or university supervised by a faculty person and onsite supervisor;

   

Rule #1 in politics - the devil is in the details... 

To read more about The Oregon Prosperity Initiative go to this link:  http://governor.oregon.gov/Gov/first_lady/prosperity_initiative.shtml

NEWT, FIRST KING OF THE "HILL" NEXT "POTUS"?

The two faces of Newt Gingrich on the race issue: 

Newt Gingrich and the Art of Racial Politics - NYTimes.com

Newt honors Martin Luther King Jr's legacy - YouTube

Newt the historian never crossed that "white" line...   RAD's laugh-o-meter just went off the charts... 

FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S DEBATE

     Newt Gingrich got a taste of the one-on-one debate he's proposed having with Mitt Romney Monday night, when the former Massachusetts governor launched an unrelenting attack against Gingrich and kept at it for much of the evening.

BONAMICI V. CORNILLES - THE BEST WE CAN GET?

   Editor's Note:  I've been appalled by the negative campaigns run in the 1st Congressional special election race by both candidates and their surrogates - Super Pacs, state parties and congressional campaign committees. 

Cornilles views on climate change

     I voted for Bonamici with "fear and loathing" because she has NO record as a legislative leader, she ran a "safe issue" gender based campaign in the special election primary in November and she has offered nothing but political pabulum since then. 

     Her only saving grace is like David Wu, if the polls are right, she will be a good buddy to Nancy Pelosi and a sure D vote for Obama.  The Oregonian editorial says it all.  As the song goes "is that all there is?" 

Bonamici as consumer advocate?

   "...some...  decry the “dual track” process (foreclosure process continues during loan modification negotiation) but we actually required a dual track process under Sen. Bonamici’s SB 628 (2009), the bill that finally expired this last January 1..." 

     Source:   Oregon’s United Financial Lobby

     The high price of attacks

By The Oregonian Editorial Board

January 20, 2012, 7:03PM

In Oregon's 1st Congressional Distrcit, negative campaigning derails voters from the real issues, yet both candidates still can fix it  Full story »

     I'm also attaching comments from Les AuCoin from Blue Oregon.  Les held this seat for 18 years.  Les was a "defence intellectual" who led the fight on the Hill to keep the Pentagon under control and he collaborated with Mark Hatfield to bring the bacon back to Oregon.

     Out of deference to a long time friend I'm including Les' more fullsome endorsement of Bonamici.  I don't by "trickle down" nor "trickle up" economics.  I want an investment strategy in the middle class like the GI Bill and a new WPA... 

     Les' issues analysis is in the "comments" section below his original post: 

  Suzanne Bonamici Meets the Wayne Morse Test

     Les' response to a Blue Oregon reader on what issues are not being addressed is telling - right on Mr. Congressman! 

     "Bob, you've described a generic problem with modern U.S. politics, about which I've been giving a lot of thought--namely, that political discourse in general seems pinched and smaller than the existential problems the states and the nation face.

     And we can't lay it all on the politicians. I was appalled, frankly, at the superficiality of most questions asked of Bonamici and Cornilles by the Portland City Club. And further appalled by fundamental questions that went unasked:

     -Should "Too Big To Fail Banks" be broken up, so that no financial institution(s) can run debts that exceed the revenues of the government? If so, how?

     -Under which circumstances, if any, should the U.S. use force against Iran to prevent it gaining a nuclear capability?

     -If the EuroZone Crisis creates a contagion that triggers a global depression--perhaps worse that the collapse of Lehman Bros--what uses of the federal government, if any, would you use to respond to the double dip recession/depression?

     -Should the U.S. go forward with a "National Missile Defense" system, given cuts in store for the Pentagon? Should U.S. policy seek the demilitarization of space?

     -Are Israeli settlements in the West Bank an obstacle to peace in the Middle East? Should the U.S. condition its foreign aid on halting them?

     -What role does the federal government have, if any, in preparing an educated workforce to compete in the global economy when 2nd world and 3rd world nations are using their comparative advantage (low wages) to displace workers in traditional U.S. industries?

     ... and so on."